The 5% result aligned with the Chinese government’s official target of “around 5%” for 2025. Still, the growth pace softened from 4.8% in the previous quarter.

With weak domestic consumption and subdued business investment, exports once again became the main engine keeping the economy moving. Strong external demand also contributed to a record trade surplus of US$1.2 trillion, helping offset broader weaknesses at home.

Exports Cushion the Blow, but Protectionism Looms

The export momentum continued even as China’s trade with the United States fell after Trump returned to office and increased tariffs. Reports suggested the decline was compensated by stronger shipments to other global markets.

Quoted by from APNews on Tuesday (January 20, 2026), ING’s Greater China Chief Economist Lynn Song questioned how long exports can remain the backbone of China’s growth if more countries begin tightening tariffs to protect domestic industries.

Governments beyond the US are also raising concerns as Chinese goods flood global markets. Several countries have responded by increasing import duties, creating the risk of further headwinds to China’s export performance in the coming period.

Domestic Consumption Stays Weak, Property Sector Yet to Recover

Domestically, the Chinese government continues to emphasize policies aimed at strengthening internal demand, but the impact has so far been limited. Trade-in programs to boost purchases of more energy-efficient vehicles have started to lose momentum, while the property sector remains a weak spot dragging down consumer confidence.

Chi Lo of BNP Paribas Asset Management said stabilizing the property market remains a key factor in reviving household spending and encouraging private investment.

At the ground level, pressure is also being felt by small businesses. A noodle shop owner in Guizhou, Liu Fengyun, described conditions as increasingly difficult as customers cut spending and choose to cook at home to reduce expenses.

Different Estimates, Slower Outlook for 2026

While official data showed 5% growth, some analysts remain skeptical that the figure fully reflects economic reality. Rhodium Group, for example, estimated China’s 2025 growth at around 2.5% to 3%.

Looking ahead to 2026, the slowdown is expected to continue. Deutsche Bank projected China’s growth at about 4.5%.

For Beijing, maintaining stable growth is not only about numbers, but also about social stability. Analysts believe China needs to sustain annual growth of around 4%–5% to stay on track toward reaching US$20,000 per capita income by 2035.